Raiders' percentage chance to earn No. 1 pick per ESPN FPI entering Week 11

Coming into Sunday’s game in Miami against the Dolphins, the Raiders were hoping to ride some recent offensive coaching staff changes to some momentum in the season’s second half. But the team’s string of losses lately has plenty of Raiders fans shifting their focus elsewhere.


For instance…could the Raiders wind up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft?


If the season ended today, the Raiders would own the No. 5 overall pick. If Las Vegas was selecting at No. 5, draft analysts have a wide range of opinions on what exactly the Raiders would do there.


Entering Week 11, what are the Raiders’ percentage chances to land the No. 1 overall draft pick?


According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Las Vegas owns the fifth-best odds to capture the No. 1 overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft.


Per ESPN FPI, Las Vegas has an 11.9% chance to earn the No. 1 pick. The Raiders have a 51.6% chance to earn a top-five pick according to ESPN FPI.


ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid shared what he thinks the Raiders would do with the No. 1 pick if they earn it.


(Shedeur) Sanders would help this team a lot. After two years of uneven play at quarterback and 10 weeks of seesawing between signal-callers, the Raiders are a strong contender to draft a passer in April. Remember, Las Vegas missed out on the top six guys in 2024, when they all went before the team was on the clock at No. 13. Sanders is an ideal fit; he has the poise, ball placement and charisma that fits perfectly with this organization. – Reid, ESPN.


Sanders could radically transform the Raiders’ franchise if Las Vegas earns the No. 1 pick and selects the Colorado star.


Here’s the teams with the top six percentage chances to earn the No. 1 pick per ESPN FPI entering Week 11 of the NFL season:



* New York Giants: 16.9% chance to earn No. 1 pick; 62.7% chance to earn top-five pick

* New England Patriots: 16.2% chance to earn No. 1 pick; 64.1% chance to earn top-five pick

* Jacksonville Jaguars: 15.4% chance to earn No. 1 pick; 59.2% chance to earn top-five pick

* Tennessee Titans: 13.8% chance to earn No. 1 pick; 54.2% chance to earn top-five pick

* Las Vegas Raiders: 11.9% chance to earn No. 1 pick; 51.6% chance to earn top-five pick

* Carolina Panthers: 10.0% chance to earn No. 1 pick; 57.1% to earn top-five pick






Kickoff between the Raiders and Dolphins in Week 11 is set for 10 a.m. PT with the game set to be televised on CBS.









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